How to Vote Strategically

Some people vote in an attempt to elect The Best Party (TBP). Other people vote in an attempt to prevent The Worst Party (TWP) from being elected. This is called strategic voting. Unfortunately, some people aren't very strategic about strategic voting - I've seen far too many people look at a national poll, see that TWP is uncomfortably close to the lead, and therefore vote for the party most likely to defeat TWP. It's not that simple. Your vote only works to elect a representative for your riding, so you need to vote strategically based on who is likely to win your riding, not who is likely to win the country.

Luckily, I've found three useful tools to help predict your riding. I can't vouch for their accuracy, but you can read about their methodology and decide for yourself. Try them all out and see if they agree.

The Election Prediction Project

If the prediction for your riding indicates that TWP will win, or that your race is too close to call, then you should vote strategically by voting for the party most likely to defeat TWP in your riding (i.e. not necessarily the same as the party most likely to defeat TWP nationwide). If you can't tell which party is most likely to defeat TWP in your riding, click on the name of your riding and read user comments. If the prediction for your riding indicates that a party other than TWP will win, vote for TBP.

Hills Knowlton Election Predictor

Click on "Split" and enter the most recent poll numbers. Poll numbers are always available from the Globe and Mail, and I'm sure you can find more by looking at the front page of your newspaper or poking around Google News. Then go to the map view to see which way your riding goes. If the map shows your riding will elect The TWP, click on your riding on the map to see which party is likely to come in second, and vote for that party. You might also want to do a Doomsday prediction, by inserting the highest historical poll results (available through the Globe and Mail) for TWP and the lowest historical poll results for TBP and the party that's most likely to defeat TWP (if you have any leftover percentage points, you can just stick them in the Other column).

If The Worst Party never shows up as a winner in your riding, vote for The Best Party. If The Worst Party wins under the most recent poll results, a strategic vote is preferable. If The Worst Party shows up under the Doomsday scenario only, you might want to see what other prediction methods have to say.

Democratic Space

This one works particularly well if you have a strong party affiliation, but still feel a strategic vote might be necessary. Simply click on the link for the party you consider to be TBP, then do what the page tells you.