Friday, January 01, 2010

Calculating the HST tipping point (for Ontario)

Numbers come from this article, primarily because it landed in my lap. If you have any primary sources on hand, I'd appreciate any links in the comments.

In return for that day-to-day pinching of the pocketbook for consumers, Premier Dalton McGuinty's government is offering the income tax cut today, reducing the tax rate on the first $37,106 by one percentage point to 5.05 per cent from 6.05 per cent.

So this means that, for everyone who earns more than $37,106, you will save $371.06 in income tax.

Under HST, an additional 8% sales tax will be charged on items that were previously subjected only to GST. According to Revenue Ontario, that list is:


* Electricity
* Gasoline
* Heating Fuels
* Internet Access Fees
* Personal Services (e.g., Hairstyling)
* Professional Services (e.g., Legal, Accounting and Real Estate Fees and Commissions)
* Tobacco


So based on the information so far (I'll get to the factors I'm missing in a moment), the HST tipping point is whether you will be charged more or less than $371.06 in additional sales taxes over a year. The $371.06 would equal 8% of your total pre-tax purchases on items from the list above. So let's calculate:

$371.06/0.08=$4,638.25

So do you spend more than $4,638.25 on things from the list above? If not, no need to worry. If you do spend more than $4,638.25 on the items on that list, then the amount of money you will be down is 8% of any amount over $4,638.25. Where N = the amount spent on things on the list:

(N-$4638.25)*0.08

In other words, if you spend $5,000 on things from that list:

$5000-$4638.25=$361.75
$361.75*0.08=28.94

So you'd be paying an extra $28.94 a year in tax.

If you're happy with a rough estimate, you can stop here. If not, read on as I make it more complicated (likely with only marginal impact on the final number).

There are three factors I haven't taken into account in this calculation:

1. The transitional tax rebate. I haven't taken this into account because it's only temporary. If you would like to take this into account, add $300 if you're a single individual, and $1,000 if you're a couple and/or have dependents.

2. What if you earn less than $37,106? Then replace the $371.06 in the calculation above with 1% of your income. Or replace X in the following equation with your income and plug it into Google:

(X*0.01)/0.08=

3. HST not only involves increasing sales tax on items previously subject to only the GST, but also eliminating sales tax on items that are not subject to GST. Problem: I can't find a list of items currently subject to only GST. But here's how you'd calculate it. Where Y equals the amount spent yearly on things currently subject to only GST:

($371.06+(Y*0.05))/0.08

The result of this equation replaces $4,638.25 above as the tipping point.

Want one giant overall equation?

N = the amount spent annually on things currently subject to GST but not PST
X = either your annual income or $37,106, whichever is less
Y = the amount spent annually on things currently subject to PST but not GST
Z = what HST will cost you. If it's a negative number, it will save you money.

Z=N-((X*0.01)+(Y*0.05)/0.08)*0.08

2 comments:

HST Facts said...

HST tax savings can be calculated here: http://www.rev.gov.on.ca/en/taxchange/calculators.html

No one believes that Ontario will emerge from this recession the same as it went in. We need to become more competitive.

The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives issued a report looking at low-income, middleclass and wealthy families and found that the HST is going to be revenue neutral.

A report by TD Bank estimates the HST will reduce cost of doing business in Ontario by roughly $5.3 billion and that the majority of these savings will be passed on to customers within the first year. In fact, the majority of items you purchase - 80 percent – will see no tax change at all.

A recent report by economist Jack Mintz confirms that Ontario needs to reform its tax system to create jobs and put Ontario back on its feet. It says, as a result of the HST, within 10 years Ontario would see:
o An estimated 591,000 additional new jobs
o Increased capital investment of $47 billion
o Increased overall annual worker incomes of up to 8.8 per cent, or $29.4billion

We have a choice: we can refuse to fix what’s broken, resign ourselves to the idea that Ontario will be less competitive or we can move forward and get the jobs Ontario needs.

Please visit: http://sites.google.com/site/thetruthaboutthehst/

impudent strumpet said...

When I was in university, I applied for a Communications internship with the Government of Ontario. I never heard back.

Their loss.