Tuesday, May 03, 2011

More information please: post-election edition

1. I can haz poll-by-poll data? I'd very much like a map like this for the 2011 results. I found the swing within my own riding less predictable than I'd prefer, so I'd like to be able to look at poll-by-poll results and see where it's happening, and perhaps figure out why.

2. Whither riding predictions? I, and many others, use riding predictions when considering the possibility of a strategic vote. There were more predictors available this election than ever before, but their margin of error is also higher than ever before. What happened? How can they be made better? I'm glad to see that many of the predictor sites are already doing post-mortems. Hopefully, we'll have better predictions available next time. (Or, like, a fair voting system that makes strategic voting unnecessary...)

3. Whither Stéphane Dion? One interesting development last night is that Michael Ignatieff lost his seat, but Stéphane Dion kept his. And this in a context where the Ignatieff Liberals lost a huge quantity of seats, and the NPD, whose policies were closer to Dion's, gained a huge number of seats. I always found the transition from Dion to Ignatieff rather odd. Dion was there, quiet, unassuming, with a platform that showed some degree of thought and innovation, and suddenly out of nowhere the media started reporting that he was dislikable. Even weirder, they started reporting that his accent is difficult to understand, when even the staunchest (and actively anti-Liberal) Anglos I know told me they have no trouble with it. (Direct quote from someone who lives in a small town where I've never heard anyone speak English with an accent: "It's not like we've never heard an accent before!") Then, there were almost immediate reports that Ignatieff was the frontrunner for Liberal leadership, even though there was no sign of this other than media reports. But Dion has survived, and Dionish policies have thrived. What will Dion's role be in the future?

4. Whither Quebec separatism? Conventional wisdom on the Anglo side of things is that the defeat of the Bloc means the death of Quebec separatism. But it occurs to me that, as some time passes, a Conservative majority might fan the flames of Quebec separatism. Quebec went overwhelmingly orange, with very little blue. Their collective values much further left than the Conservative Party's. With the MPs who represent Quebec unable to get play for the wishes of their constituents, and tax dollars tied up in projects they don't support, Quebec might feel held back and oppressed by the federal government and increase its desire to get out. It occurs to me that Canada's last Conservative majority (Mulroney 1988-1993) led to the creation of the Bloc in the first place.

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