Tuesday, April 05, 2011

How to Vote Strategically

This is part of my Voter's Resources post.

Some people vote for the party whose platform they find most suitable (the Best Party). Other people try to prevent the party whose platform they find most harmful (the Worst Party) from being elected, by voting for the party that's most likely to defeat the Worst Party (the Compromise Party). This is called strategic voting.

The most important thing about strategic voting is that your strategy has to apply to the reality in your riding. The media feeds us national polls for breakfast every day, but they're not directly relevant. Regardless of what the rest of the country is doing, your vote will only be used to elect your own MP. If your riding is already disinclined to elect the Worst Party, there's no point in a strategic vote - you'd just end up making the Compromise Party look more popular than they really are.

So here's what to do if your priority is stopping the Worst Party from winning:

1. Ask yourself: "If I don't vote, who's going to win in this particular riding?"

If the answer is a party other than the Worst Party, vote for the Best Party. If the answer is "the Worst Party" or "it's too close to tell," go on to step 2.

2. Ask yourself: "If I don't vote, who's most likely to defeat the Worst Party" in this particular riding?

This is your Compromise Party. Read their platform. If it's acceptable, vote for the Compromise Party. If it's not acceptable, vote for the Best Party.

Remember: ignore the national polls; think only about the situation in your riding!

So now you're thinking:

"But how do I figure out what's going to happen in my riding?"

There are many many resources this time around. Check them all out and see what they say about your riding.

- The Election Prediction Project
- Hill and Knowlton Election Predictor. (You need poll data for this. The site provides some, more is available all over the media.)
- DemocraticSPACE
- ThreeHundredEight (riding predictions in the right-hand column)
- LISPOP
- How did your neighbourhood vote? (If you're voting strategically, you still have to look at the whole riding rather than the individual polls, but this is still interesting)
- Project Democracy is designed specifically for those considering a strategic vote against the Conservative party. If this includes you, it might be of use. If not, stick to the other predictors.
- Too Close To Call

Prediction sites update constantly, and I will be updating this list as I find more prediction sites, so check back again closer to election day.

6 comments:

Unknown said...

the election prediction model is run by a liberal staffer so tell me, how bias is that?

lol, everybody knows that strategic voting is about getting NDP leaning voters to vote liberal. And it is why Iggy goes to NDP held ridings and campaigns. The con isn't even in the contest. So tell me, who would you vote for the real thing, or libs who always fake left, rule right, and actually agree with the cons on most things.

impudent strumpet said...

That's why I'm providing five different predictors all using different models. Know of any others you think I should include? I'd love to add them - I'm trying to be as comprehensive as possible.

CanNurse said...

Thank you for this great & very valuable piece! I have University students asking me often recently how to vote strategically to prevent a Con majority Gov. This will be an enormous help! Well done! Sharing...

impudent strumpet said...

Because students often have the option of voting either in the riding where their parents live or the riding where they go to school, they might also be interested in Where to Vote.

laura k said...

Another tool for strategic voting: Project Democracy.

Anonymous said...

Great briefing on strategic voting and thanks for all the links to data relevant to each riding. I thought the LISPOP data link was the easiest to navigate, but totally appreciate you posting the variety.