The media keeps mentioning that Michael Ignatieff is by far the frontrunner in the federal Liberal leadership race as though it's an unquestioned fact. However, I haven't seen anything to prove or even suggest this, nor have I seen a media mention that backs this allegation up in any way.
I freely admit I may have missed something. I don't read all the media coverage of everything at all ever, I can't. And I'm not a member of the Liberal party so there may well be stuff going on that I can't see.
But from where I'm sitting, I see the media having unofficially crowned a winner, and I see no particular basis for this idea.
This calls for skepticism.
7 comments:
I've seen only the Globe & Mail, but all they have had for the past few days is that Rae is going on a road tour to say good things about the Coalition, with Ignatieff pretty much quiet and out of sight.
Iggy is ahead because he has a majority of the caucus and ex-officios on side. If they have a caucus vote on leadership (because they have decided they can't wait until the scheduled convention in May), Iggy will win. If they go to convention, Iggy has majority of caucus and ex-officios and has a jump on delegates as well from the scuttle but so he will likely win.
Despite Anon's prediction, if Ignatieff gets the leadership, many NDP voters will leave in disgust and vote Gree or abstain. Rae has a better chance of heading a coalition.
Anon: that makes sense, but how would I have learned how many caucus members support Iggy? Has it been in the news and I missed it? Or is this inside information and that's why it's an anonymous post?
Here IS. Robert Silver has done some of the legwork for you. Not precise (is anything?), but probably the best numbers you are going to find.
Whoops! Here is the url.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081207.WBSilverPowers20081207133434/WBStory/WBSilverPowers
Thanks JHMB!
(Clickable link)
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