Now I rarely make bold black-and-white declarative statements - I adore nuance - but in this case, speaking as a member of the demographic in question and given the specific numbers in the article, I am quite convinced there is one answer.
It's all about abortion.
Women, especially younger women and especially single women, don't vote Conservative because we don't trust that they'll uphold our rights to and access to abortion.
Look at the specific number breakdowns. Please qualify all my statements with "In general, statistically speaking, using gross generalizations to explain broad trends, etc.":
Among single women, the Conservatives trail the Liberals by a whopping 19 points (36 to 17 per cent), whereas the Conservatives are seven points ahead among married women (37 to 30 per cent).
Because raising a child single-handedly is way harder, married women are more likely to welcome a pregnancy (or at least not see it as a major problem). It is also easier to get a tubal (or a vasectomy) if you're married, so married people who don't want any (more) children may be able to get sterilized and therefore be less likely to need an abortion.
The Conservatives lead by nine points among rural women (37 to 28 per cent) but trail by four among urban ones (33 to 29 per cent).
With the cost of living being lower in rural areas, supporting an planned child would be easier. In major cities, even a two-bedroom apartment may be out of people's price range. Also, this is a (positive or negative, depending on your opinion) feedback loop - culture in rural areas tends to be more conservative and family-oriented, so people who don't want that sort of life tend to leave and move to the city, which reduced the number of non-family people in rural areas, which makes it even more family-oriented etc. etc.
Women under 34 favour the Liberals by 11 points (38 to 27 per cent); women over 50 prefer the Conservatives by eight points (36 to 28 per cent).
Younger women are more fertile, so more likely to become pregnant despite contraceptive efforts. Doctors don't like to do tubals on women under the age of 35, so younger women are more likely to be fertile against their will. In contrast, menopause tends to happen around 50, so the vast majority of women over 50 simply will not become pregnant no matter what happens.
As part of their strategy of slicing and dicing the electorate, the Conservatives have very specifically targeted married women.
Their so-called "child care policy" was really a new version of the old family allowance approach: a cheque in the mail for families with kids. Their "tough on crime" policies were intended to be popular with older women and those with children. Their itsy-bitsy tax credits for children's athletic programs had young families in the bull's eye.
This not only is irrelevant to the childless woman, but also, by targeting women through child-related policies tells us specifically that they don't care about us except as mothers. All the child tax credits in the world do not negate the existence of a child. Crime is bad, we do agree with that just like anyone else, but even executing - even torturing! - my rapist would not make up for being forced to gestate his baby. It doesn't matter how many women are in government, what matters on a personal, visceral level is that everyone - not just me and my friends and cousins and sister but everyone, even random 14-year-olds in Nunavut - gets to gestate only the pregnancies she wants to. If they doubled my taxes to pay for an abortion clinic on every corner, I would applaud and campaign for them next time around. If they cut my taxes to zero and eliminated all crime and gave you $100,000 a year for each child but eliminated the possibility of abortion, I would riot.
At this point, people usually point out that the Conservatives are not trying to take away my Morgentaler Clinic. Which is true, on paper at least, and explains why they're getting any votes at all. However, we have long memories. If Paul Bernardo was out on parole having been a model prisoner and evaluated as unlikely to reoffend, I still wouldn't get in a car with him. And before you tell me that this isn't an apt comparison, if you told me "Get in the car with Paul Bernardo or abortion will be eliminated," I'd pause only long enough to tell you where to find my will.
If you have a fertile womb but do not want to become pregnant, there are few things anywhere near as important. Anyone who we even suspect does not understand this has no chance of getting our votes.
1 comment:
Very cool.
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