Tuesday, June 29, 2004

When I went to bed, all was right with the world. Liberals had won a
sizeable minority, NDP held the balance of power. The country was safe, my
job was safe, best possible outcome. When I woke up, it was a bit more
uncertain. NDP was one seat away from balance of power! GAH! I honestly
thought it was all over, that's why I went to bed! At least I got to fall
asleep feeling the most content and satisfied I've ever felt when falling
asleep alone.

I'm still satisfied with the outcome. I think it accurately represents the
sentiments of Canada as a whole, I think the current voting system gave us
an appropriate balance of power this time (with the exception of the
over-represented Bloc), and I think this government will be able to govern
as long as they make a modicum of effort to build consensus and don't let
egos get in the way. I don't know if we can trust Martin to do that, but if
he does he'll be able to govern.

Campaign analysis:

- The Liberals did not run a good campaign at all. If this were a "make a
good election campaign" contest, they would not deserve to win. Because of
Martin's hubris and need to separate himself from Chretien, he did not run
on his record, and when a governing party does not run on their record, it
gives a bad impression. They could have won the swingable right by
emphasizing their economic record, but they didn't. Instead they decided to
run on "fix healthcare". But since they've been in power for the last 10
years, the fact that healthcare needs fixing implies that they broke it.
They could have damaged-controlled the sponsorship scandal by emphasizing it
as a paperwork problem, akin to someone losing a receipt, and promptly
pushed through new, more transparent policies to ensure that every dollar
ever spent is accounted for. But instead they just pinned it on Chretien
and let the public believe that the cost of an entire program landed in
someone's pocket.

- The Conservatives should have started from a more centrist position and
moved further right once they gained the trust of the public. (I hope no
Conservatives are reading this!) I think a Purple Tory (a phrase that badly
needs to be coined!) position that doesn't take much of a stance on social
issues would have won more Red Tory/centrist support without risking much of
the neocon support (who are neocons going to vote for anyway, the NDP?).
They also lost a lot of the "Not The Liberals" support by having candidates
publicly blurt out snippets of their underlying neocon agenda on a weekly
basis.

- The NDP had an excellent platform, but they should have written off Quebec
to the Bloc and kept their mouth shut about the Clarity Act. Many of their
supporters, for example those in areas like Hamilton, are a lot less likely
to dispassionately analyze the intricacies of Quebec politics, instead
thinking "Those guys want to break up Canada! And now the NDP wants to help
them!" I don't think the inheritance tax bought them any friends (and there
were several problems with that plan, but that's for another rant), but
mostly they should have better addressed the issue of strategic voting.
Telling people not to vote strategically would be fruitless, but they could
have pointed out that voting strategically if your riding is already safe is
truly throwing away your vote. If they really wanted to invest in this,
they could have commissioned a riding-by-riding poll, so people would know
if their riding was safe. This would have won them at least two more seats
in Toronto alone.

- The Green Party is not nearly as left-wing as people think. They actually
have some very conservative (note my choice of capitalization) economic
policies. If people actually knew that, they might have gotten more votes.

- Just for fun, the Bloc should pick up some extra cash by running
candidates outside of Quebec. They wouldn't have to campaign or anything
outside of Quebec, just get a name on a ballot. You know it will pick up a
couple of joke/protest votes, and hey, it's $1.75 per vote!

Peeves:

- The timing of the poll closures, leaving us with 10% of the ridings
declared and an hour and a half until more results come in. They should
close Newfoundland at 9:30, Maritimes at 9:00, and the rest of the country
at 8:00 local time. Then everything up to Ontario would come in at once,
and we'd have lots of numbers to keep us amused while the rest of the
country finishes. Alternatively, close everything at, say, 8:00 local time.
It seems to take about half an hour to count enough of the Maritime votes,
then they'd have half an hour for speculation and punditry before the big
numbers come in.

- The side-effects of no media blackouts. I have no problem with lack of
media blackouts, but it does get problematic when Maritime winners use their
"You won and you have name recognition" interview to try to get out the vote
in BC.

- The idea that people didn't vote Conservative because of "fear of the
unknown". I'm sure that many people didn't vote Conservative because of
fear of what they DID know about them. Similarly, any sort of "Wassa
matter, you chicken?" rhetoric surrounding the decision of whom to vote for.
This isn't the appropriate outlet for senseless acts of recklessness, and
there's nothing shameful about voting for what's safest for the country.

- Pundits who equate not being right-wing with anti-West sentiment. Where
does that come from? Do they really think someone hates Alberta just because
they think a national daycare program is a good idea? Would you say a person
is anti-Toronto just because they aren't left-wing? It just comes across as
rhetoric intended to make the West hate the rest of the country.

- The omnipresent idea that the most important thing is that a party does
what they say they're going to do, no matter what it is they say they're
going to do. If someone says they're going to outlaw shoes and they go and
outlaw shoes, that doesn't mean it's a good thing that shoes have been
outlawed, and it doesn't mean that you should vote for them again when they
say they're going to outlaw pants.

- The fact that the English media has not managed to properly communicate to
anglo Canadians that people might vote Bloc for reasons other than being
separatist.

- The seemingly random order in which CBC showed riding results. That must
have been very annoying for those who weren't simultaneously tracking their
favourite ridings online! They should have just cycled through every riding
alphabetically!

Best moments:

- Being congratulated on my l33t ballot-folding skills, and playing with a
cool black and white doggie while its owner went to vote. I always seem to
meet cool doggies whenever I vote.

- Rick Mercer! "Hockey night in Canada for nerds" "It's very important that
the greatest evil DOES NOT win!" "I've never seen a rhinoceros, I think it
would be neat."

- That brief, shining moment when the Marxist-Leninist Party led Mississauga
East-Cooksville.

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